MPSSAA boys’ basketball playoff preview: Complete team-by-team and region breakdown

Wise guard Brandon Howell (1) is one of the top outside scorers in the state. Photo credit: ROLVXX Photography.

Class 4A

State semifinals: March 9, 7 and 9 p.m., Xfinity Center
State finals: March 11, 8 p.m., Xfinity Center
Defending champs: Eleanor Roosevelt

Confidence scale

4 — Let’s just say I’d be stunned if this team didn’t win their region

3 — Likely to make it out of the region, but slippage and/or losing to a contender wouldn’t be shocking

2 — Contenders are right on their heels; one hiccup could be detrimental

1 — Complete toss-up. Someone has to make it out of each region, so why not them?

Class 4A crystal ball

WEST

Defending champion: Walt Whitman

Favorite: Quince Orchard (Section II) / Confidence scale — 1

Contenders: Kennedy (II), Richard Montgomery (I), Walt Whitman (I)

Darkhorses: Bethesda-CC (I), Blair (I), Churchill (I), Clarksburg (II), Einstein (II), Gaithersburg (II), Wootton (II)

SOUTH

Defending champion: Eleanor Roosevelt

Favorite: Dr. Henry A. Wise, Jr. (Section II) / Confidence scale — 3

Contenders: Bladensburg (I), Bowie (II), Eleanor Roosevelt (II)

Darkhorses: C.H. Flowers (II), Parkdale (I)

EAST

Defending champion: Meade

Favorite: Old Mill (Section I) / Confidence scale — 2

Contenders: Annapolis (II), Glen Burnie (I), Meade (I), North Point (II)

Darkhorses: Arundel (I)

NORTH

Defending champion: Perry Hall

Favorite: Perry Hall (Section I) / Confidence scale — 4

Contenders: Paint Branch (II)

Darkhorses: Dulaney (I), Sherwood (II), Springbrook (II)

STATE TOURNAMENT

Semis: Wise (-20) over Quince Orchard

Semis: Perry Hall (-15) over Old Mill

Final: Wise (-2) over Perry Hall

The Lowdown: Last year was practically the field versus goliath Eleanor Roosevelt in Class 4A, a team standing much taller than the rest. The Raiders, with six of their top eight players standing at 6-foot-5 or taller, had a scoring margin of +16.3 in their championship run, including a 72-39 thrashing of Meade in the title game. This year, the level of competition has leveled off, slightly, plating a dramatic final three weeks.

4A championship pick

Seniors Darron Barnes (4), Brent Pegram (0) and Michael Speight (5) are three-year varsity players looking to end their high school basketball careers in illustrious fashion. Courtesy photo.

Wise (16-0, projected 4A South champion): From top to bottom, the Pumas harness the most complete public school basketball team in Maryland. Their resumé speaks for itself — zero losses and six wins against MSA Top 10 opponents, with a +11.7 scoring margin in those games.

They have the floor general needed to come through in white-knuckle postseason moments in Brent Pegram (11.6 points, 6.9 assists), and the personnel around the senior lead guard is enough to leave opposing game-plans in a vexing state. Senior guards Michael Speight (17.6 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.8 3-pointers per game, 84.5 percent free throw shooter) and Brandon Howell (15.9 points, 3.3 3-pointers per game) are dynamite scorers and space the floor on the perimeter, while 6-foot-6 forward Darron Barnes (11.6 points, 10 rebounds, 3.1 assists) goes to work inside. Defensive-minded 6-foot-7 junior center Terrence Gibbons (5.6 points, 3.3 rebounds, 0.4 blocks) solidifies a starting-five that has yet to be tamed.

Though their bench isn’t the deepest, it does the job with 6-foot-3 guard Matthew Webber (3.9 points, 2.1 rebounds, 77 percent free throw shooter), 5-foot-9 guard, Za’Kei Newsome (3.6 points, 80 percent free throw shooter), 6-foot guard Yamon Robinson (2.9 points, 90 percent free throw shooter) and 6-foot-5 forward Daniel Corley (2.4 points).

Coach Rob Garner has laid a foundation — rooted from faith and fortitude — that’s unwavering. Garner’s groundwork allows his well-rounded, lethal unit to play cohesively, translating to dominance and illuminating prospects of running the table. The 4A South is, without a doubt, the most vigorous pool in the state, and Wise has downed every team in the region, a feat 2015-16 Eleanor Roosevelt didn’t complete. Be wary, however. Wise isn’t a juggernaut, and they still need to get past Bowie and/or Eleanor Roosevelt in the section and potentially Bladensburg in the region final to reach the state tournament. One blunder can unravel a masterpiece in the making, but at this rate, the Pumas have shown they’re built to win it all.

State title contenders

Horses within their region and strong odds to capture a state title

Perry Hall forward La’Quill Hardnett after the 83-60 win over No. 2 Baltimore Poly: “All those articles we see, saying we’re the underdog, it puts us in the gym. And this is what comes out.” Photo by Troy Queen/Sports Majors.

Perry Hall (20-2, projected 4A North champion): Before Wise’s dominance arose, Perry Hall had my vote as the preseason favorite in Class 4A. Clearly, they’re dethroned, but the Gators aren’t far off. If it wasn’t for the loss to unranked Largo at the buzzer, I wouldn’t be questioning their eliteness. They, too, have what it takes to finish on top.

Five of their top six players are back and much improved from their state tournament run a year ago; the same nucleus that knotted eventual runaway champion Eleanor Roosevelt at halftime, 32-32, in the Class 4A state semifinal. If they harnessed something Wise didn’t, it’d be final-four experience.

Juniors La’Quill Hardnett (6-foot-8) and Anthony Higgs (6-foot-9), who could pass up as fraternal twins because of their wiry, athletic frames, pose as mountainous tasks for opponents. Hardnett (13.2 points, 10.4 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 2.2 blocks) brings stability inside with adroit post moves and shot-altering defense at the rim. Higgs (15.3 points, 8.4 rebounds, 1.8 blocks) can score from virtually anywhere — above the rim or way past the arc. Both stretch the floor and excel in transition. Hardnett says he has a handful of Division I offers, including Towson. Higgs, meanwhile, is garnering attention from Maryland. Senior guard James Rider (6-foot-3, 9.4 points, 3.4 rebounds) provides the leadership and grit a backcourt-gunner needs to push their over the hump come playoff time. Rider is also a sneaky outside scorer with a knack for coming through in the clutch. Senior forward Darrell Green (6-foot-4, 11.4 points, 5.4 rebounds, 64 percent from 2-point field goals) brings another long and lean frontcourt body and lead guard Aaron Butler (5-foot-6, 6.1 points, 3.4 assists, 1.9 steals) is a shifty facilitator and premier defender on the perimeter. Off the bench, Fredo Carter (6.1 points, 66 percent from 2-point field goals) brings energy and scoring and Tyler Holley (7.4 points, 4.6 rebounds).

The ceiling is sky-high for the Gators. When pumping on all cylinders, they’re the best team in the state. Just ask Baltimore Poly. However, the 58-47 and 55-53 losses to No. 24 Patterson and Largo undermine invincibility.

Quince Orchard (20-2, projected 4A West champion): Not much needs to be said around the Cougars basketball program: The time is now.

Colin Crews, Mitch Czworka, Johnny Fierstein and Matt Kelly — a foursome in their third year at the varsity level — have 55 wins in their tenure and a 40-4 record the past two seasons, but no trips to the state tournament. If it’s going to be the year, this is it. The nine seniors on their roster have accounted for over 75 percent of scoring, with program cornerstones Fierstein (offer from Division II Shepherd University) and Kelly averaging 14.2 and 15.7 points per game, respectively.

Quince Orchard’s Johnny Fierstein attempts a layup in the first half of Friday’s contest with Kennedy. Photo credit: Phil Fabrizio.

Experience is imminent, and reflects in their style of play — driven by fundamentals and discipline. A third straight early playoff exit trashes a four-year project. They’ll need to ride 6-foot guard Crews (4.8 points), 6-foot-1 senior guard Czworka (5.1 points), 6-foot-2 junior forward Daniel Dorsey (10.2 points), 6-foot-2 junior guard Jack Farone (5.5 points), 6-foot-3 forward Fierstein and 5-foot-9 guard Kelly in order to make a state tournament push amid the wildcard Class 4A West.

Old Mill (20-2, projected 4A East champion): If the Patriots from Anne Arundel County are going to make a state title push, it all starts on the defensive end, where they’ve allowed 50 points per game this year.

Coach Mike Francis, a knowledgeable shot-caller, loves to keep his opposition on their toes with a variety of defensive packages: Man-to-man, full-court press, 1-2-2 press, Syracuse-inspired 2-3 zone, you name it. Offensively, load rests on the shoulders of sophomore guard Avion Robinson, who is averaging around 15 points per game this year.

Bladensburg (17-4): From double-double machine Daniel Oladapo to DeMatha transfer Sherwyn Devonish, the Mustangs have what it takes to win their first state championship in 43 years (1973). But there’s one roadblock: Nationally ranked and MSA No. 1 Wise, who handed them two of their four losses by an average of 15 points, stands in the way.

Bladensburg’s prospects of a state title push rests on the broad shoulders of 6-foot-6 forward Daniel Oladapo (2), who is averaging around double-double this year. Photo credit: Hoya Report.

Nonetheless, Bladensburg has risen from irrelevance to a Class 4A horse. Last year, a clock malfunction in the Class 4A West region championship exiled the prospects of competing on the big stage in College Park. Eleanor Roosevelt, who benefitted from the clock error, went on to win the 4A title with ease.

If you’re Bladensburg, it’s frustrating to ponder what could have been, but the invaluable experience gained from a Sweet 16 appearance plates another go-around. Oladapo, a 6-foot-6 forward averaging 20.8 points and 13 rebounds per game, leads the charge, and 5-11 point guard Devonish (13.3 points), 6-2 guard Amin Sanya (12.5 points), 6-3 guard Javonte Sterling (7.4 points) and 6-foot guard Tyshon Walker (6.1 points) round out the starting-five.

If the Mustangs take care of business in Section I, they’ll find themselves back in the region title game for the second year in a row. The best scenario is for someone in Section II to knock out Wise, and if that comes to fruition, the path to a state title appears even more promising. If not? Well, then Bladensburg will have to hunker down and gut one out against the state’s top dog.

Eleanor Roosevelt (19-4): Even with the departures of Xavier-bound Naji Marshall and 6-foot-7 forward Victor Okafor, the Raiders remain a strong contender in Class 4A with the likes of 6-foot-4 junior guard Jaden Faulkner (11.9 points), 6-5 senior guard Gus Okafor (10.3 points) and 5-11 junior guard Barly Kanu (13 points per game).

Since dropping two of their first three games — falling short to WCAC powerhouse DeMatha 73-65 and No. 1 Wise 48-45 — the Raiders have won 16 of 18, with both losses coming to MSA Top 10 ranked and intra-region foe Bladensburg. Their three-point loss against Wise is the closest anyone has played the Pumas.

If they can somehow upend Wise in the Section II 4A South playoffs, and potentially get by Bladensburg in the region final, then the Raiders are in prime position to win back-to-back titles.

Bowie (14-7): In late January, the Bulldogs were right up there in terms of Class 4A title contenders.

On the eve of February, they sported a 13-3 record and played No. 1 Wise down-to-the-wire, 53-49, earlier in the year. They also picked up quality wins against Sidwell Friends (D.C.) and ranked Bladensburg. Then they endured a deflating 24-point loss to No. 1 Wise and followed it up by losing to pedestrian Parkdale. Two games later, they lost to ranked Eleanor Roosevelt for the second time, and just like that, the wind appears to have evaded from the sails.

Bowie remains a title contender, however, and for a few reasons, with Towson commit Quinton Drayton (19.1 points) at the top of the list. They’re also solid defensively, yielding 52.5 points a night; sport a relatively deep roster and have proven to contend with the big guns. In spite of sputtering across the regular season finish line, this evolving question remains: Can they put it all together?

Region title contenders

Contenders within their region, but unfavorable odds win a state title

Kennedy (18-3): The Cavaliers busted out of the gates winning their first 13 games by an average of 26.4 points. Then, as the back-nine hit, they cooled off, losing three of their last nine games and two to unranked opponents (Blair and Paint Branch).

They do holster the leading scorer in the 4A West, 6-foot-2 guard Jonathan Mustamu (22.3 points) and utilize a stingy 1-3-1 zone defense, but the fact the Cavaliers only go six-deep is a cause for concern. Their starting five — Mustamu, 6-3 guard Justin Dantzler (12.5 points), 6-5 forward Habaccuc Regnis (12.4 points), 6-2 guard Jason Nyamey (11.4 points) and 6-3 guard Jomaite Tavarez (10.6 points) — practically play the whole game.

Despite the lack of depth, Kennedy has the wherewithal to withstand the 4A West. They just have to hope there’s enough left in the tank when it’s crunch-time.

Richard Montgomery (17-4): If it wasn’t for their inconsistency, I’d probably have the Rockets as my favorites out of the 4A West. They deploy a stout defensive group that allows 49.4 points per game. When the offense is sputtering, defense saves the day.

Richard Montgomery’s magic number to a state title run is 60: They’re 13-1 when scoring more than 60 points, and 4-3 when scoring less than 60 points.

Though 5-foot-9 guard Jason Hawkins recently dropped 40 points, the Rockets are balanced offensively. Four players average in double figures — Hawkins (14.7 points), 6-2 guard Daryn Alexander (12.2 points), 6-2 guard Jordan Stover (11.2 points) and 6-6 center Zaire Mitchell-Paden (10.3 points).

Their resumé makes it clear: Score more than 60 points and you have over a 90 percent chance of succeeding. Score less? Then prepare to grind.

Walt Whitman (16-6): The defending Class 4A West champions have only played a handful of games this season with a full, healthy lineup, and their top six players have combined to miss 17 contests. But for the first time in a while, the Vikings are at full strength with leading scorer Alex Sanson (14.3 points) and 6-foot-8 center Max Oppenheim (7.6 points and 10.0 rebounds) back in the fold.

Everyone is talking about Quince Orchard, Kennedy and Richard Montgomery when people need to focus on this Whitman team. Chris Lun is a state champion head coach (2006) and majority of the players from last year’s final four run are ready to sequel the stretch.

Alongside Oppenheim clogging the paint, Whitman boasts one of the biggest rosters in all of Maryland with 6-7 wing Hannes Kogelnik (7.0 points, 2.2 3-pointers per game), 6-3 guard Joey Squeri (10.9 points), 6-5 forward Kieran Kindig (3.8 points), 6-7 forward Sam Kapner and 6-9 center Abdou Diouf. Jack McClelland (5.9 points, 5.4 assists), a 6-foot lead guard, complements the towering length with playmaking ability. Brendan Shaver (6.4 points), a 6-foot-1 sophomore guard, plays a role on the perimeter as well.

Sure, the Vikings are 0-4 against MSA ranked teams and have flopped against Einstein and Churchill, but they’ve yet to peak. And if they do, the Vikings will once again earn a final four appearance.

Glen Burnie (15-5): The Gophers started 11-0 and earned a spot in the MSA Top 25, but then tailed off, losing five of their last nine games. Their biggest challenge on reaching the state tournament is ranked Old Mill, a team they’ve lost to twice. Glen Burnie’s destiny rests on the shoulders of 6-foot-4 senior forward Davon Cuffrey (20.6 points), 6-2 guard Troy Smoot (13.2 points) and 6-foot guard Markell Watkins (11.4 points).

Paint Branch (15-6): The Panthers should be able to get through Section II of the 4A North without much trouble and reach the region title game, where they’ll likely play Perry Hall. Four of the seven teams (Digital Harbor, Howard, Mervo and Western) have losing records, and the other two — Sherwood and Springbrook — the Panthers beat twice already by an average of 17 points per game. Four players average in double figures: Steve Etienne (12 points), Xavier Reaves (11.4 points), Richard Dudley (10.2 points) and James Valle (10.1 points). If they do reach the region title game, however, they’ll be heavy underdogs against MSA No. 3 ranked Perry Hall.

Meade (17-5): The Mustangs have dominated the 4A East the past two years, capturing the Class 4A crown in 2015 and advancing to the state title game in 2016. But this year, they’re on the outside looking in. They graduated a handful of key pieces, with Tristan Easton at the top of that list, and most of its experience has left the school. Now Meade is led by sophomore Mahzi Thames (15.4 points) and Jeremy Washington (11.1 points), one of four seniors on the Mustangs’ roster. Esmond Williams (7.8 points and 6.1 rebounds), a 6-foot-2 junior forward, and Syvon Stardiant (7.6 points, 2.8 assists) play vital roles as well. After an up-and-down start, Meade has won eight of their last nine games with the latest against No. 18 Old Mill in preparation to capture their third straight region title.

Annapolis (14-8): The Panthers are fresh off a 74-65 win over ranked Old Mill on February 7 and carry an 8-4 record in intra-region games into postseason play.

North Point (13-9): Sure, North Point is barely above the .500 clip, but don’t disregard them solely on their record. The Eagles are gunned by the top scorer in Maryland, Jalen Gibbs (28.8 points), and have won 10 of their last 13, including five straight. Though their defense allows about 70 per points game on the season, they’ve only given up 57.8 points on average during the four-game win-streak. They’re also the only Charles County team in the 4A East, and only played one game this season against a regional opponent (71-66 loss to Chopticon), so predicting North Point’s regional title chances are a bit of a wild card. Nonetheless, the Eagles are too good to be left out of the equation.

Region darkhorses

Potential Cinderella stories: Longshots to win their region

Arundel (12-8): Took Old Mill down to the wire on January 24 (54-50) … led by Christian Thornton (11.5 points)

Bethesda-CC (9-12): Led by 6-foot-6 senior guard Cameron Galic (16.7 points) … took Walt Whitman (44-43) and Richard Montgomery (64-59) down to the wire.

Blair (11-10): Downed No. 17 Kennedy on Feb. 3, 63-60 … led by Kendall Douglas (12.8 points) and Julius Cobb (11.8 points) … holds a 6-5 record in intra-region games.

Churchill (15-7): Downed No. 15 Richard Montgomery (54-43) and No. 19 Walt Whitman (61-37) on January 23 and February 3 … won eight of their last nine games … 12-4 record in intra-region games … led by 6-foot-2 senior guard Bradley Leventhal (18.8 points)

C.H. Flowers (7-10): Took Bowie (63-59) and Bladensburg (78-75) down to the wire on January 19 and 24 … led by 6-foot-5 senior forward Glenn Ford (13.9 points), junior guard Juwan Burnett (11.7 points) and DeMarcus Demonia (11.6 points)

Clarksburg (10-10): Led by Ian Krishnan (18.8 points), Michael Winterburn (15.9 points) and 6-foot-4 junior forward Stephen Armstrong (12.9 points, 5.2 points)

Dulaney (15-6): Led by 6-foot-6 freshman guard Che Evans Jr. (offers from Georgia Tech, St. John’s, TCU, UNLV; interest from Maryland)

Einstein (9-12): Beat No. 14 Richard Montgomery (48-46) and No. 19 Walt Whitman (54-53) on January 19 and 23 … led by 5-foot-9 senior guard Kalil Bowen (16.1 points) and 58 point guard Solomon Bradford (10.8 points)

Gaithersburg (8-14): Won eight of their last 13 games since starting 0-9 … led by Paris Dyson-Dimes (17.7 points)

Sherwood (11-10): Upset No. 5 Bladensburg (69-64) on Dec. 27 … 33 percent of points have come via the 3-ball … led by Davis Long (15 points), Josh Sells (12.9 points) and John Ervin (12.8 points).

Springbrook (10-11): Took No. 6 Douglass-PG down to the wire (65-63) … led by Matthew Balanc (20.5 points)

Parkdale (12-9): Downed No. 6 Bowie (46-44) on February 3 … led by 6-foot-2 junior guard Lonnie Lesane (11.2 points) and 5-10 point guard Emanuel Roberts (11.2 points)

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